Kyiv Post has some interesting analysis of the ongoing massive demonstrations in Tbilisi against the government’s efforts to force through essentially the same controversial “foreign agents” law they ended up withdrawing last year in the face of similar protests. The main difference this time seems to be that the ruling Georgia Dream party of billionaire oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili has concluded that Russia is now on the verge of “winning” its war against Ukraine, so they no longer give a f*ck about what Europe or their own citizens think about the issue — they’re determined to ram it through Parliament while they still have the votes to overcome an expected Presidential veto ahead of October’s election in order to toady up to Putin:
“At a rally, oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili - former prime minister and true power behind the ruling party - called for the 'final judgement' on the opposition, which he accuses of being 'foreign agents' of the 'global war party EU-Nato' who are 'preparing the revolution' in the run-up to the October elections. ... Never before has the intention to bring Tbilisi back under the wing of Moscow, which grabbed a fifth of the country's territory in 2008, been formulated more clearly. ... This signal was also heard in Brussels. The European Parliament discussed imposing sanctions on Ivanishvili and suspending the accession process for Tbilisi. ... But that would only pave the way for Ivanishvili.”
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The Georgian Dream party which has ruled the country for many years is under pressure now, observes Ukrainska Pravda:
“The most common explanation is that the law, which makes control over the public sector and independent media possible, is being used to secure victory in the parliamentary elections on 26 October. For the first time, these elections will be held without the single-mandate constituencies in which the ruling party has always won. That is why it will be more difficult for Georgian Dream to win this time round. ... Retaining power (it should be remembered that Georgian Dream has been in power for almost 12 years) is the party's key objective. And it is prepared to sacrifice even its ties to the EU to achieve this.”
It sounded harmless at first
Exiled TV-Rain journalist Ekaterina Kotrikadze warns on Facebook:
“Thanks to the Russian experience, people in Georgia understand very well where a 'law on foreign agents' leads and what it is needed for. Let me briefly recapitulate: The Russian state had promised us, too, that nothing terrible would happen, that the law would merely ensure 'transparency' and not prevent anyone from working or living in Russia. ... There is not a single major independent media outlet or international human rights organisation left in Russia today. That was the aim of the Russian authorities when they claimed that the law on foreign agents was just a trifling matter.”
Al Jazeera also has a good article up on the current Georgian situation:
Mass demonstrations last year forced the government to withdraw a similar bill. This second attempt has given renewed energy to thousands of young people, from school pupils to university students, swelling a tide of discontent.
They believe their government has fallen under the influence of the Kremlin and is sabotaging their dreams of being part of Europe. Each night, the rallies have begun with the Georgian national anthem, as well as the EU’s, Ode to Joy.
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[T]he Georgian government has insisted its own law is similar to legislation in Western countries.
The EU disagrees that the law resembles Western transparency regulations, such as EU and French planned directives and the US’s Foreign Agents Registration Act.
Ursula von der Leyen, president of the EU Commission, warned on May 1 that Georgia was “at a crossroads”.
Washington is alarmed. It has provided almost six billion dollars in aid to Georgia since the 1990s. US Ambassador to Georgia Robin Dunnigan said in a statement on May 2 that the US government had invited Georgia’s prime minister, Irakli Kobakhidze, to high-level talks “with the most senior leaders”.
According to Georgia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs later that day, that invitation was declined. Instead, Kobakhidze accused the US of supporting “revolutionary attempts” by non-governmental organisations working in the country, such as EU-funded organisations Transparency International Georgia and ISFED, which often call attention to government corruption and abuses of power.
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Kornely Kakachia, director of the Georgian Institute of Politics, said he believes the government’s rhetoric reflects the opinion of Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire founder of the governing party.
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, he adds, has changed Ivanishvili’s calculus.
“Ivanishvili and GD leaders believe that Russia is winning in Ukraine and he just thinks [of] how to be friendly with [Russia], to find his place in this geopolitical new order,” says Kakachia.
In tandem with its foreign funding law, GD has promised to curb LGBT rights and has passed amendments to the tax code that will make it easier to bank money from overseas in Georgia.
“That’s an attempt to try to lure Putin and the Kremlin basically to give them a new model of Georgia, which will be a kind of offshore zone for Russian oligarchs,” says Kakachia.